September 17, 2020
An "Average" Meeting
Fed officials expect rates to remain near zero through 2023; the inflation goal is to now average 2% over time.
- As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds target-rate range at 0.00-0.25%.
- Fed officials expect rates to remain near zero through 2023.
- FOMC’s language changes primarily focused on inflation, emphasizing that the committee will target an inflation rate moderately above 2% “for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time.”
- Fed projections showed an improvement by year’s end in the current unemployment rate (from 9.3% to 7.6%) and GDP (from -6.5% to -3.7%).
At their September meeting, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials kept interest rates near zero and said they expect those low rates to remain through 2023. They also reaffirmed their support for the economy and financial markets until inflation rises above 2% “for some time,” which they projected to be in 2023.
As part of its ongoing and aggressive accommodative stance, the Fed expects to maintain the current pace of asset purchases and to continue to provide a backstop to aid a recovery that focuses on maximum employment and price stability.
“Fiscal policy response had a really positive effect, but more fiscal support is likely to be needed,” said Chairman Jerome Powell, who also noted that the Fed had only “lending powers and not spending power.”
September’s projections showed improved optimism by the committee, which predicted that by year’s end the unemployment rate and gross domestic product (GDP) would be better than previously predicted in June, as projections were adjusted from 9.3% to 7.6% for unemployment and from -6.5% to -3.7% for U.S. GDP. In June, the Fed predicted an economic recovery was likely in the second half of 2020. Today, household spending has recovered about 75% of its earlier declines as the reopened economy has steadily gained traction across cities and states.
Below are the language changes made in the Fed’s statement from July:
As the market did not anticipate a change in the Fed’s stance of low-rates-for-longer, investors focused on FOMC’s economic projections and the committee’s new language around inflation. This was only the second glimpse in 2020 of the estimates (March projections were canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic). Here are the committee’s September projections for GDP, unemployment, inflation, and the federal funds rate for 2020 and the next three years:
The “Dot Plot” showed rates to remain at current levels now through 2023, as median projections show no rate hike for the next three years. While all policymakers expect to keep the funds rate near zero through the end of 2021, one official saw rates increasing in 2022 (compared to two officials in June’s projections), and four saw a higher fed funds rate in 2023:
The 10-year Treasury was lower by 1 basis point to 0.69%; short rates were flat; and long rates were 3 basis points higher on the day:
Markets lost some traction during the Fed’s press conference as investors got their second glimpse at Fed projections post the COVID-19 bottom. The dollar rebounded from day lows, while U.S. stocks erased initial gains as Chairman Powell spoke. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500® indices finished the day mixed at +0.13% and -0.46%, respectively. Fed officials reaffirmed their stance that policy will remain highly accommodative until they are confident the economy is far along the road to recovery. The committee indicated it is confident and determined to achieve the 2% average inflation goal under current policies. The commitment by Fed officials to keep rates near zero until 2023 indicates their belief in the depth of the economic problems and in the recovery time needed to get the economy back to pre-pandemic levels.
One basis point is equal to 0.01%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average index (DJIA) tracks the share price of the top 30 large, publicly-owned U.S. companies which is often used as an indicator of the overall condition of the U.S. stock market.
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